Trump's new US tariff wall shakes up winners, losers lineup

President Donald Trump is rolling out new tools with the same protectionist goals after the Supreme Court ruled his sweeping global tariffs to be illegal. His administration wants the rebuilt wall of import taxes to mirror those Trump put on every major trading partner at the beginning of his second term. 

But not all is as it was on April 2, 2025 — or Liberation Day, as the president called it. To make tariffs more legally sound, many countries are subject to investigations under accusations of trade unfairness — with the most prominent two focused on forced-labor rules and excess industrial capacity.

The actions were brought under a legal authority known as Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Not all countries are targets of the probes, and when Trump's temporary 10% across-the-board tariffs expire at the end of July, some stand to gain a competitive edge with a lower rate than they had before. Others could end up worse off.

With Trump, though, it's wise to assume a wild card in policy making. On trade, that's been the administration's use of exemptions from tariffs for imports it doesn't want to make more costly to buy from abroad, like AI equipment or farm tractors or Brazilian coffee. On the flipside are inclusions that can add items and broaden the scope of tariff targets. 

Another unresolved issue is what happens with economies like India, the European Union, Japan, South Korea and the U.K. that signed trade agreements capping their tariff rates at lower negotiated levels — especially on automobiles. U.S. officials have sought to reassure them that those agreements remain intact.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer's trip to India this week may provide a preview of what countries with deals should expect. Piyush Goyal, the nation's commerce and industry minister, said at a press briefing that "the issue currently pending is that our duties need to be lower compared to those of competing nations," according to local news agency ANI.

With those caveats, here's a breakdown of prospective winners and losers for the next phase of Trump's tariff barriers. 

Winners

The Philippines 

Under the Liberation Day levies, the Philippines was subject to a 19% rate. The Southeast Asia country will instead be subject to a 12.5% tariff if the forced-labor penalties are imposed as proposed. It isn't subject to the excess capacity probe, so there isn't an expected increase in duties later on. 

That raises the potential for a nearly seven percentage-point drop in its tariff rate compared with April 2025. U.S. goods imports from the Philippines totaled $7.7 billion in the first fourth months of this year, a 51% increase from the January-April period in 2025. 

South Africa

In April 2025, South Africa was slapped with a 30% tariff rate as Trump regularly alleged the government of discriminating against white Afrikaners. That duty rate is now expected to settle at 12.5% after the forced-labor investigation concludes. South African goods shipments into the U.S. through April totaled $3.5 billion, down 56% from a year earlier.

Smaller economies

Several countries that engage in less than $10 billion of U.S. trade are set to benefit from the new tariff wall, with some bouncing from exorbitant tariff rates back down to the most favored nation duties. This potentially opens up a new frontier for multinationals to shift their supply chains in attempts to avoid higher duties.

Pakistan's tariffs will drop 19 percentage points to 10% from 29%. Myanmar was hit with a 44% duty in April 2025. Now, it could drop down to a rate of between zero and 2% on most goods, and Laos and Lesotho are also in similar positions. 

Losers

Singapore

With final details still unclear, Singapore is a small but important U.S. trading partner that will almost certainly be left in a worse position under the new tariff regime. It did not get a country-specific emergency tariff in April 2025. 

But the city-state did get hit with the 10% duty applied to earlier this year to all the others. That is now at risk of increasing: The Southeast Asian economy faces both a 12.5% tariff on forced labor and an expected additional tariff from the excess capacity probe. 

People in Singapore are "keenly aware" that the new tariff wall is a problem for them, said Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at The Hinrich Foundation. "They were sitting at a comfortable, manageable 10%," and now, they're at risk of being pushed into a worse spot. 

Making matters tougher for American importers that pay tariffs and handle compliance paperwork, Singapore is one of the world's busiest transshipment hubs — meaning lots of raw materials enter its ports and industrial zones and are then exported as finished products. 

Too soon to tell

Canada

At first glance, Canada appears better positioned, with tariffs on imports lower than in April 2025. There are key exemptions for USMCA-qualified goods. Still, industry-specific tariffs on metals have strained Canadian industry. 

Trump regularly threatens to withdraw from the North American trade agreement he helped broker during his first term, and has made clear he has grievances with Canadians for retaliatory actions. Even if the threats are a negotiating chip, it means Canada can't rest easy heading into U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement renegotiations in the second half.

Mexico

Mexico is pushing for relief on sector-specific auto tariff rates, arguing that their rate exceeds those of some vehicles imported from South Korea or Japan. As part of the ongoing USMCA talks, Washington is pushing Mexico to implement a rule for cars in the North American trade zone to be composed of at least 50% American-sourced goods. The talks will continue through at least July, making it unclear how Mexico's trade impact will shake out in the near term. 

European Union

The EU is under pressure from the U.S. to codify its trade agreement. The European Parliament and EU countries still need to vote to ratify the finished text before a July 4 deadline imposed by Trump. The U.S. president said that if the deal isn't in place by then, he will hike tariffs on European automobiles to 25% from 15%, though Greer has sought to assure Brussels that "a deal's a deal."

The parliament did its part last week, voting to approve the pact. EU countries are expected to give their final nod later this week, the last step in a fitful, yearlong ratification process.

But just last week, Trump launched a 301 investigation against Germany, citing "persistent underpayment for innovative pharmaceutical products." In response, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he expects the U.S. to stand by its trade commitments with Europe, adding that decisions on pharmaceutical payments are a domestic matter.

China

China is in a vastly better position than it was at the top of Trump's second term. During his presidential campaign in 2024, he vowed to implement a 60% tariff on China. The effective rate now sits at roughly 21%, according to analysis by Bloomberg Economics. 

The U.S. and China are set to revisit their tariff truce this fall. While much could happen between now and then, Chinese leader Xi Jinping demonstrated the country's leverage over the U.S. economy by blockading its rare earths exports last year.