States could see corporate tax windfall from new tax law
States may receive a major boost in their corporate tax revenues as a result of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, according to a new report.
The report, prepared by EY’s Quantitative Economics and Statistics unit on behalf of the Council On State Taxation’s State Tax Research Institute estimates the nationwide overall increase in state corporate income tax bases is 12 percent over the next 10 years, although it predicts significant variations between the states by year. The report estimates the average expansion in the state corporate tax base to be 8 percent from 2018 through 2022, increasing to 13.5 percent for 2022 through 2027.
The growing increase in later years is mainly thanks to the impact of research and experimentation expense amortization starting in 2022 and the change in the interest limitation that same year.
Another important factor behind the projected increase in corporate tax revenue is because states usually conform to federal provisions that broaden the corporate tax base, but not to provisions that reduce corporate tax rates. The magnitude of increased corporate tax collections for each state will depend on how it chooses to conform to the changes in the federal tax code from the new law, the composition of its economy, and the way in which specific provisions within the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are implemented at the federal level. In some “rolling conformity states,” which conform directly to the federal tax code as it is amended, the changes in the TCJA are already part of that state’s tax law. In others, known as “fixed” or “static conformity states,” the changes from the new tax law will only be incorporated when the state’s legislature enacts legislation to conform.
“This analysis provides estimates of the potential magnitude of the state corporate tax base expansions that could occur with state conformity to provisions of the TCJA,” said EY principal Andrew Phillips in a statement.
The states that are expected to get the greatest estimated percentage change in state corporate tax base from the new tax law are mainly those that tax certain types of foreign income. The impact will also vary by industry based on the tax and financial profiles of companies in each industry sector. The study estimates the change in the state corporate tax base expansion by sector: manufacturing: (12 percent), capital intensive services (17 percent), labor intensive services (9 percent), finance and holding companies (8 percent) and other industries (13 percent).
Pennsylvania and Vermont are expected to see the largest increase, at 14 percent, in the estimated percentage change in the state corporate tax base from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, according to the report. The state with the lowest estimated boost, of 4 percent, is Mississippi.