Transferable tax credit market grew, but not for wind and solar

The market for transferable tax credits for clean energy grew in the past year, but moves by the Trump administration to eliminate tax incentives for wind and solar energy caused those segments of the market to drop, according to a new report.

The report, released Monday by Crux, a company that provides technology for transferring such tax credits, shows continuing growth and diversification in U.S. clean energy financing despite policy uncertainty and setbacks in the first half of this year. 

The transferable tax credit market grew from $8.5 billion in the first half of 2024 to over $20 billion in the first half of 2025. Crux noted that the growth reflects many consecutive years of increasing investment in clean energy and manufacturing, especially over the past three years. There has also been increasing market diversification. Energy storage projects gained significant market share, alongside newly eligible credits from advanced manufacturing, critical minerals, clean fuels, geothermal, and other technologies.

However, even as those segments of the market grew, the proportion of the market associated with standalone wind and solar dropped materially from 76% in the first half of 2024 to 43% in the first half of 2025. Unsold 2025 supply is even further tilted toward newly eligible technologies. 

The report found that changing trade policy and negotiations around the One Big Beautiful Bill Act introduced uncertainty early in the year and further impacted an already-evolving tax credit market composition. That uncertainty led to tightened financial conditions in equity and debt markets in the first half of 2025. 

The bill made significant changes to wind and solar credits, preserved credits for most other energy and manufacturing categories, and completely retained transferability. Since passage of the bill in early July, the Trump administration has further tightened the window for wind and solar energy companies to place their projects in service with tax regulations.

But the report found that increasing U.S. power demand and higher utility rates created supportive tailwinds for clean energy regardless of the administration's policy. Those demands are expected to continue to drive investments into energy storage, advanced manufacturing, clean fuels and other emerging sectors. Much of the increasing demand is coming from server farms used for processing artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency transactions. Together, the forces pushed the market to adapt quickly, with both developers and investors showing an increasing interest in hybrid financing opportunities. 

"Massive investments in energy infrastructure are being realized at the very moment the U.S. needs more electricity and manufacturing capacity," said Crux CEO Alfred Johnson in a statement Monday. "But the new policy environment is challenging, especially for developers of wind and solar. Transferability helped knit together what were once fragmented financing submarkets into a larger, more dynamic, more integrated market; this integration has opened new opportunities and different strategies across the capital stack."