Although the pundits have already weighed in on the economic effects of the administration's latest proposals at improving jobs and investment, the specific legislation to enact the proposals faces hurdles, which will diminish the likelihood of an effect any time soon.
The proposals, announced earlier this week, would expand,
simplify and make permanent the R&D tax credit; accelerate business
investment by allowing a full deduction for qualified capital investments through
the end of 2011; and expand the country's infrastructure of roads, railways and
runways.
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But regardless of their merits, they face the barriers of timing and cost, according to Marc Gerson, former majority tax counsel to the House Ways & Means Committee and a partner in Washington-based Miller & Chevalier.
"Congress is coming back for a short time before the
elections," he noted. "For any proposal there is a short window of time so that's its
unlikely we could see something enacted in the work period before
elections."
The other barrier - the elephant in the room - is the cost of the proposals. "The statutory language will not be that difficult to draft, but the question is how much detail has the Administration given to Congress on the revenue offsets to finance those proposals," said Gerson.
"There
will be a lot of debate and consideration as to what the revenue offsets would
be. Expensing and the R&D
credit are items that will generate some bipartisan support, but both the
timing and revenue offsets are concerns that will affect the legislative
process."
Gerson pointed to the administration's budget proposals as a possible source for the offsets.
"The
February budget includes measures on international taxation, and oil and gas as
well as other possible "pay-fors," he said. "Those might be
likely sources to fund the these."
The offsets might bring a double-edged sword to the
proposals, according to Gerson. "Companies could benefit, but the question is at what cost, and
where they would end up on a net basis," he said. "For example, a high technology
company may see a certain benefit from the proposals but at the same time it
might be concerned with offsets aimed at U.S. multinationals, so on a net basis
it might not be interested."
"The
revenue offsets will be permanent and could change fundamental ways in which
companies' international operations are taxed. The fact that the offsets are
not spelled out in the proposal and that a significant amount of revenue is
involved causes me to be concerned."
The legislation will likely be proposed in separate
pieces so it will be possible to enact one or two rather than all three, Gerson
suggested. The immediate expensing
provision, at a cost of $30 billion, might be easier to enact than the
permanent expansion of the R&D credit at $100 billion. But even if the legislation is proposed
separately, there is a very tight legislative window."
Moreover, the pending midterms and change in the makeup
of congress will have an impact, he said. "Both the expensing and the
R&D credit provisions might have bipartisan support, but there's still the
question of how to structure the offsets."






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