House Speaker Mike Johnson is betting the upfront rewards from President Donald Trump's tax law will carry his party in the 2026 midterm elections, allowing Republicans to defy U.S. political convention and hold on to their House majority.
The swift passage of the bill earlier this month, combined with Republicans' decision to make many of the provisions — such as a larger child tax credit — retroactive to January 2025, will bode well for the party ahead of next year's elections, Johnson predicted.
"They will feel it before they go vote in '26," the Louisiana Republican said of voters during an interview with Bloomberg reporters and editors.
That's a stark difference from Trump's first-term tax bill, which Johnson said voters didn't feel the benefits from ahead of the following year's disastrous congressional elections, a decision that he called a "big mistake."
Many of the new law's spending reductions, including deep cuts to Medicaid, won't take effect until after the midterms.
The president's party typically loses seats in the midterm elections. Even with Trump at the top of the ticket in 2024, Republicans lost a net of two House seats.
But Johnson cited Black and Latino voters' shift to the right in 2024 and Republicans' "favorable" map heading into next year as additional reasons for optimism. A Trump-backed effort in Texas to redraw district lines to favor Republicans, meanwhile, should yield the GOP "a few" additional seats, Johnson said.
Election map
The electoral map already favors Republicans heading into next year with more Democrats defending seats in districts won by Trump than Republicans in districts carried by former Vice President Kamala Harris, Johnson said. Thirteen House Democrats represent districts that went for Trump in 2024, while only three Republicans represent districts Harris won.
"We have an offensive map opportunity, meaning we can go and target some of these Democratic districts and flip them," Johnson said. He's eyeing an additional 21 Democratic districts that Trump came within five points of carrying.
In a big win for Johnson, Representative Mike Lawler of New York, a Republican in a swing district, announced Wednesday morning that he would remain in Congress rather than compete for the GOP nomination for New York's governorship.
Lawler helped secure in the tax bill a four-fold increase to the state and local tax deduction to $40,000 a year for a five-year period, a massive win for his high-tax district.
"I texted him, 'and all the people said, 'Amen,'" Johnson said. "He can win that district. He's a singular figure."
The speaker said he has an "all-star recruit" to replace Representative Don Bacon, who is retiring, in a Nebraska district that went for Harris in 2024, though he didn't say whom he has in mind. Johnson also said he expects Pennsylvania Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — one of just two Republicans to vote against the tax bill — to hang on in his suburban Philadelphia district.
