Republican Party leaders are rushing to overcome lingering internal fights over President Donald Trump's massive tax and spending package as Democrats launch attacks to exploit the divisions.
Senate Republicans were still at odds Monday over how much to cut Medicaid and other social safety-net programs and how rapidly to end Biden-era clean energy tax breaks as Democrats gained the chance to force votes on amendments to the package.
Democrats, locked out of power in Washington, are planning to offer amendments during a marathon voting session to exploit the infighting and make the GOP goal of getting holdouts to back the bill as soon as Monday night more difficult.
"I'm confident that the bill is going to progress as-is over the next few hours, and it will be on the president's desk to sign on July 4," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg Television on Monday morning.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune was less assured. Asked if he was confident he had enough support to pass the legislation, Thune replied, "Never until we vote."
Trump remained in contact with lawmakers Monday, as he was over the weekend, according to an administration official who said the White House remains optimistic that the president would get the legislation to sign by Friday.
U.S. Treasuries edged higher on Monday but the prospect of larger budget gaps, which would require an increase in bond issuance, is expected to weigh on the bonds, particularly those with the longest maturities. A Bloomberg index of that debt has underperformed the rest of the market this year index and the yield on 30-year Treasuries in May briefly rose above 5% for the first time this year, though it has come down since.
Investors have grown wary of lending to the U.S. government for such extended periods, demanding higher yields as a result and increasing a cushion known as the term premium.
Political problems
The minority party believes the $3.3 trillion package, which cuts social safety net programs to partly pay for tax cuts that skew toward the wealthy, will provoke a political backlash against Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections. They will use the amendment votes to highlight the legislation's most politically problematic provisions and put Republican senators on the record through their votes.
Under Senate rules, Democrats can offer unlimited amendments that can pass with just 51 votes. They say they will aim to strip out Republican cuts to Medicaid health insurance for the poor and disabled, food stamps and college student loans.
Some Republicans are also planning to offer amendments in long-shot bids to bake some of their priorities into the bill.
Susan Collins of Maine is planning to offer an amendment that would double the rural hospital fund to $50 billion, in exchange for a tax increase on some of the highest-earning Americans. Many rural lawmakers are concerned Medicaid cuts in the legislation would force hospitals in sparsely populated areas to close even with the new dedicated aid fund.
Her amendment would increase the top tax rate on individuals earning $25 million to 39.6%. The amendment could factor into last-minute negotiations if Collins still hasn't been persuaded to support the legislation.
Offensive posture
The Democrats are trying to either put swing-state moderates on record supporting cuts to social-safety net programs or persuade them to take them out — something that would rile the Republican fiscal conservatives. An amendment to stop cuts to rural hospitals, a particularly sensitive topic to some GOP members, is high on their list.
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer on Sunday was already relishing the retirement announcement of North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis, a casualty of the GOP infighting over the bill's Medicaid cuts.
"It just shows you that the Republican majority is at risk because their Big Ugly Bill is so unpopular," he told reporters.
Tillis warned Republicans were at risk of a backlash by failing to keep Trump's health care promises. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 11.8 million people could lose health coverage over the next decade as a result of the bill.
"What do I tell 663,000 people in two years or three years when President Trump breaks his promise by pushing them off of Medicaid because the funding's not there anymore?" Tillis said on the Senate floor, referring to Medicaid recipients in his state of North Carolina who could lose coverage.
Tillis on Sunday announced he wouldn't be running for reelection, a decision that gives him more latitude to break with Trump, who had threatened to back a primary challenge to Tillis. The 64-year-old senator has said that he'll oppose the bill and railed on it in a floor speech for Medicaid cuts.
Vote counting
Thune needs to win over at least five of a group of eight major GOP holdouts on the bill. The amendment votes could make the job harder by fanning the flames of division.
The Republican leader can afford to lose only three of his 53 members in the chamber, with Vice President JD Vance breaking the tie.
Kentucky's Rand Paul has said he is going to vote "no" on the legislation based on the price tag and the inclusion of a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase. If both Tillis and Paul remain in opposition, Thune can only lose one more.
That means Thune has to satisfy most of a group of conservatives including Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Rick Scott of Florida and Mike Lee of Utah. Thune told reporters he would back an amendment they support to roll back the expansion of Medicaid under President Barack Obama's Affordable Care Act but he said he couldn't guarantee that the amendment will pass. If it fails, it remains unclear how this block of conservatives will vote on final passage. Scott declined to say when asked Monday.
Thune is also trying to convince the more moderate Collins and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska to swallow their qualms over cuts to social safety net programs and clean energy tax credits and vote for the bill.
— With assistance from Steven T. Dennis, Cam Kettles, Catherine Lucey, Sonali Basak, Carter Johnson and Michael Mackenzie
