Joe Brusuelas, the chief economist of Top 100 Firm McGladrey, expects the Federal Reserve to raise U.S. interest rates by at least 25 basis points this year, with a further increase early in 2016.

Writing in The Real Economy, McGladrey’s monthly publication on economic trends affecting the middle market, Brusuelas noted, “Improvement in the labor market and the strong probability that inflation will move back toward the central bank’s 2 percent target during the next 24 months are enough to support the Fed’s likely decision to raise interest rates.”

After early 2016, he expects the Fed to hold off on further hikes until after the presidential election. “Then, in 2017, the central bank will probably get more aggressive and move rates higher on the back of what will have been a multiyear period of above-trend (2 percent) growth,” he wrote.

The September issue of The Real Economy also includes an overview of global financial conditions, and a recap of results from McGladrey’s third quarter Middle Market Leadership Council survey. You can view it online here.

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