Finance pros are confident AI won't replace them, but may replace others

Financial professionals, including accountants, are generally bullish on AI and the majority are unconcerned it will eventually replace them — however, others, especially at the entry level, might not be so lucky.

This is according to a recent poll by Thomson Reuters, which surveyed over 1,200 professionals in law, accounting and corporate finance. It found that a comfortable majority believe that widespread use of generative AI will lead to their skills being even more highly prized than they are even now. The survey found 40% of professionals say this will happen between 18 months and five years from now; 24% of professionals say this will happen over the next 18 months.

Part of this is likely due to professionals predicting that AI can drive operational improvements. The vast majority think that generative AI will help, not hurt, productivity and internal efficiency. Tax and accounting firms say it can help them keep clients in the know, assist with client communications, and improve their ability to put complex ideas into layman's terms. Within tax functions specifically, professionals said AI can help reduce the chance of audits and penalties through improved data quality, as well as identification of patterns that find potential risk of losses that could occur based on analysis of large amounts of data, including contracts. Other professionals cited the potential to improve their ability to research topics and review documents as other positives.

This optimism can be seen in predictions that the rise of generative AI will result in new service offerings (82%) and alternative pricing models for firms (75%). The report, on this last point, said this is likely because AI-assisted work can be more easily slotted into a fixed fee arrangement. The report also predicted a decline in outsourcing: about 60% of poll respondents said the use of generative AI will mean a greater proportion of work can be done in-house; by contrast, 35% said generative AI will actually lead to fewer things being done in-house.

Despite this bullishness, though, there remains a significant chunk of professionals ranging from pessimistic to outright despondent. The poll found 33% of professionals believe the rise of generative AI will literally lead to "the demise of the profession" because their "skills [are] no longer needed." The poll found 24% thinks this will happen slowly, between 18 months and five years from now, while 9% believe this will happen fast, within the next 18 months.

The prevailing view is that the rise of generative AI will lead to more top-heavy organizations: 57% overall believe there will be a decline in entry-level positions, with 27% believing it will happen slowly (18 months to five years) and 25% who think it will happen fast (within 18 months). Conversely, 58% think the number of professionals in their own departments will likely grow; 26% believe it will do so slowly while 32% believe it will happen fast. In contrast, only 31% believe their own departments will see reduced headcount.

This might seem to imply that people believe established players will benefit from AI more than entry-level workers.

As for who will be hired in the future, many are predicting it will be people without traditional qualifications as AI opens up new career paths. The poll found 68% believe more work will be done by those without traditional qualifications due to AI, and 66% believe AI will carve new career possibilities.

FreshBooks survey

The Thomson Reuters survey lines up well with another recently released study from Freshbooks, which polled 100 accounting professionals. It found that accountants were fairly confident AI could not replace them: 70% believe that today's generative AI tools cannot match the nuanced skills of a human accountant. But unlike the Thomson Reuters survey, which saw 67% saying generative AI will have an impact ranging from high to transformational, the FreshBooks survey found only 36% anticipate a substantial impact on tax preparation, and 32% expect impacts on accounting advisory services.

The FreshBooks survey shows a large chunk of respondents, 38%, saying they anticipate that the rise of generative AI means not having to hire as many accountants. However,  57% of accounting professionals disagreed with this notion.