Remote work stats confounded by divergent methods

What percentage of people worked remotely during the pandemic? A recent study found the answer depends on how one defines terms like "worked" and "remotely" and "during" and "pandemic," among other things.

The study, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, surveyed various surveys of remote work adoption since 2020 and found that methodological differences between them likely caused statistical distortions. The study specifically examined the Current Population survey, the Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Real-Time Population Survey, the Google Consumer Surveys, Gallup's COVID Tracking Survey, and the American Time Use Survey.

This was all to answer one question: why do estimates of remote work vary so drastically across surveys? For instance, page 13 of the study includes a table showing that, in November 2021, Gallup's figures were triple those cited by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at the same time.

One confounding factor is that certain surveys were internet-only, which would bias the data in favor of higher proportions of remote workers because they are the ones more likely to take the poll, edging it 1.6% higher. Another is whether the survey counts self-employed people as remote workers, which the American Time Use Survey does not, leading to a 3% downward bias. There is also the question as to whether one excluded those who were already working from home before the pandemic, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics did, which the researchers said resulted in an 8% undercounting. Other findings include that those who are college educated are more likely to take part in a remote work survey, and Black Americans are less likely to take a web-only survey. The quality of mobile internet in a given locality was also found to affect the degree to which online surveys were completed.

In response to these and other statistical issues, the researchers launched what they called their
"Remote Life Survey," which was meant to take these things into account. The survey consisted of 6,672 U.S. adults, ages 18 and older, and drawn from a nationally representative sample of Gallup's household panel. Of the 6,672 respondents, 6,049 completed the survey by web and 623 completed the survey by mail. Web interviews were completed between Oct. 16-23, 2020; mail surveys were sent on October 16 and responses were accepted through Nov. 30.

The survey was both by mail and by web. It controlled for factors such gender, age, race, ethnicity, education and census region; provided respondents with the option of stating how much they work remotely, rather than a simple binary option; differentiates between those who began remote work after Feb. 1 2020 and before, but includes both; surveys members of the U.S. military; asks about changes in commute time versus an absolute number; includes self-employed persons and differentiates between sole proprietorships and home-based businesses; and includes other controls.

With all this in mind, the survey said that, in October 2020, 31.6 percent of the continuously employed workforce always worked from home (WFH) and 21.9 percent sometimes or rarely WFH, totaling 53.5 percent. This was an increase from the 25.3% who had already been working from home pre-pandemic.

"We cannot manage what we can't measure. And we cannot understand how much remote work will affect the economy and society if we do not know how many people are working remotely. Studying and addressing measurement issues carefully will help researchers, policymakers, workers, and employers correctly appraise the state of the labor market with respect to remote work. This will enable better decision-making broadly as the labor market reconfigures the design of employment contracts to facilitate a much higher prevalence remote arrangements," said the study's conclusion.

The survey was not applied to current work-from-home data.

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